I fully agree Bill, polls are bullshit. How can you believe a poll ordered by say, Democrats, that reliably predict a Harris/Walz win while the same pollster hired by the retrumplicans, reliably predicts a landslide by trump/vance. These polls have unusually fast turnarounds. Back in the "old" days, Gallup would poll 3500 or so random individuals over several States and in a few weeks come up with a statistical analysis. No they poll 500 to 1100 individuals in a few hours and comeup with dumptruck of reliable manure for fertilizer.
I read somewhere… and apologies for not remembering where, also apologies for not understanding how polls work… it seems there’s some calculation that includes past polls. Polls haven’t been accurate since Covid and Dobbs… there’s no reason to believe they’re accurate now.
I also am feeling good about Kamala, as long as I don't look at the polls. You should consider watching Arlene Unfiltered either on YouTube or TikTok. She's got her PhD in political science and backs up her claims that Kamala will be our next president with data. Check her out! She's one of my best forms of therapy up until 11/5. https://www.youtube.com/@ArleneUnfiltered
I'm betting on Carville, and voting for every Democrat on the ballot.
Perhaps I watch too much videos from the progressive channels but I can’t see a majority of Americans voting for an increasingly insane nitwit.
I fully agree Bill, polls are bullshit. How can you believe a poll ordered by say, Democrats, that reliably predict a Harris/Walz win while the same pollster hired by the retrumplicans, reliably predicts a landslide by trump/vance. These polls have unusually fast turnarounds. Back in the "old" days, Gallup would poll 3500 or so random individuals over several States and in a few weeks come up with a statistical analysis. No they poll 500 to 1100 individuals in a few hours and comeup with dumptruck of reliable manure for fertilizer.
I read somewhere… and apologies for not remembering where, also apologies for not understanding how polls work… it seems there’s some calculation that includes past polls. Polls haven’t been accurate since Covid and Dobbs… there’s no reason to believe they’re accurate now.
I also am feeling good about Kamala, as long as I don't look at the polls. You should consider watching Arlene Unfiltered either on YouTube or TikTok. She's got her PhD in political science and backs up her claims that Kamala will be our next president with data. Check her out! She's one of my best forms of therapy up until 11/5. https://www.youtube.com/@ArleneUnfiltered
Thanks. She is really good. And she is right about those Senate races.
Rick Scott is very vulnerable. He won by a tiny margin last time.
Reproductive rights and Marijuana are on the ballot. I "feel" Florida flipping...maybe.
I needed that "Believe" speech this morning. (I love Ted Lasso! It was nice to see those characters again... like seeing old friends.)
There are rumors that there might be another season. Hope so! JMO, best show since West Wing :)
...and Nate Silver now works at Polymarket, that has major investments from Peter Thiel
Yes. Thanks for the add.
And therefore, completely discrediting himself.
Hope there is a big paycheck because it was a really bad career move.
😲
Thank you, Bill!
I say:
Poll your own soul
Then move your ass
Polls are sh*t