The Bulwark today hate hate hated this prediction and I didn't read the whole thing (I can only read so much so I pick and choose what to read, what to breeze through, and what to note and skip) but from a glance it looked like the objection is they dislike the method and don't consider it to be credible, and there seemed to be a subtext of "if people feel it's a foregone conclusion they may relax about getting to the polls to vote". Clearly the prediction is not intended to get people to slack from going to the polls. It's intended to predict what will happen if people do in two months what it looks like they are going to do as of right now. It's the problem scientists have where the observer can influence the observed. Whatever - jump and up and down, squeal a little even though it will probably over excite the dog, and then make sure you are registered to vote. And vote.
I don't think there is enough of a polling gap (as with Hillary) to create any complacency.
We are registered and we are encouraging everyone we can to show up for the Great Blue Tsunami.
I continue to maintain that Dobbs will be remembered as the single biggest mistake of the MAGA Maniacs. Women and young people are going to make their fury known. And some old guys like me, too.
It's actually kind of sad IMHO that it takes something like Dobbs though. It shouldn't take a single issue when the character and over all policy issues are so eye blindingly clear.
I agree, of course. But I'll accept whatever weapon available to dispatch the demon.
There was a time...there was a time...not so long ago...when just one of his issues/offenses/trials/betrayals/treasonous acts...would have ejected a candidate from a campaign - like a SpaceX rocket to nowhere.
There was a time when character and shame were driving forces in the body politic.
Well done, thanks Bill. I agree, and profoundly hope that Prof. Lichtman is correct. His reasoning is certainly sound and Bush-Gore, which he missed, was problematic for a lot of people.
Thanks Bill! That was great. With Trump out of the picture, we, the people, will be able to work on Harris to end the genocide and start the process of dismantling the capitalist/imperialist Empire before it destroys the planet, at least that’s what Don Quixote thinks.
The link worked for me. This is my first time hearing of Dr. Lichtman. The criteria is certainly interesting, and reminds me of my husband's secret method for picking horses. I believe Kamala will win, too, because she's running against a worse candidate in the history of the United States. His dementia has gotten worse since 2020 (what is he even talking about paying for child care with tariff money???) and he took credit for Roe v. Wade being overturned. That was a very, very bad thing to do, Donny.
No intention of creating complacency. Just a moment of hope. But yes. The Dobbs decision ended it for the MAGA Republicans. A decision and a bridge too far.
Good observation about Trumps dementia. Too bad it doesn't get as much attention as Biden's stutter.
Try this gifted link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IU4.3A5q.ztzrXBUo8F0e&smid=url-share
The Bulwark today hate hate hated this prediction and I didn't read the whole thing (I can only read so much so I pick and choose what to read, what to breeze through, and what to note and skip) but from a glance it looked like the objection is they dislike the method and don't consider it to be credible, and there seemed to be a subtext of "if people feel it's a foregone conclusion they may relax about getting to the polls to vote". Clearly the prediction is not intended to get people to slack from going to the polls. It's intended to predict what will happen if people do in two months what it looks like they are going to do as of right now. It's the problem scientists have where the observer can influence the observed. Whatever - jump and up and down, squeal a little even though it will probably over excite the dog, and then make sure you are registered to vote. And vote.
I don't think there is enough of a polling gap (as with Hillary) to create any complacency.
We are registered and we are encouraging everyone we can to show up for the Great Blue Tsunami.
I continue to maintain that Dobbs will be remembered as the single biggest mistake of the MAGA Maniacs. Women and young people are going to make their fury known. And some old guys like me, too.
It's actually kind of sad IMHO that it takes something like Dobbs though. It shouldn't take a single issue when the character and over all policy issues are so eye blindingly clear.
I agree, of course. But I'll accept whatever weapon available to dispatch the demon.
There was a time...there was a time...not so long ago...when just one of his issues/offenses/trials/betrayals/treasonous acts...would have ejected a candidate from a campaign - like a SpaceX rocket to nowhere.
There was a time when character and shame were driving forces in the body politic.
Now it is simply warfare.
Also, JVL doesn't want to have to come up with a new theme until after the election.
Well done, thanks Bill. I agree, and profoundly hope that Prof. Lichtman is correct. His reasoning is certainly sound and Bush-Gore, which he missed, was problematic for a lot of people.
I guess the good professor didn't anticipate a Supreme Court interfering in a state function like counting votes.
That court and that decision led straight to one the stupidest and most tragic mistakes in US history. The Invasion of Iraq.
Thanks Bill! That was great. With Trump out of the picture, we, the people, will be able to work on Harris to end the genocide and start the process of dismantling the capitalist/imperialist Empire before it destroys the planet, at least that’s what Don Quixote thinks.
The link worked for me. This is my first time hearing of Dr. Lichtman. The criteria is certainly interesting, and reminds me of my husband's secret method for picking horses. I believe Kamala will win, too, because she's running against a worse candidate in the history of the United States. His dementia has gotten worse since 2020 (what is he even talking about paying for child care with tariff money???) and he took credit for Roe v. Wade being overturned. That was a very, very bad thing to do, Donny.
No intention of creating complacency. Just a moment of hope. But yes. The Dobbs decision ended it for the MAGA Republicans. A decision and a bridge too far.
Good observation about Trumps dementia. Too bad it doesn't get as much attention as Biden's stutter.
Yay!
One can hope. And vote.
Oh dear do you have a gift link? Some of us no longer subscribe.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IU4.3A5q.ztzrXBUo8F0e&smid=url-share
I just tried to get in and they are having "technical issues....come back later"