There is an endless public duel between pollsters and pundits. Recent polls suggest this or that. Biden is having trouble in swing states (that’s why they call them “swing states”). Trump is losing his iron grip on the Republicans (large numbers voted for Haley who had already quit). The analysis is non-stop and numbing. As so many have said, the presidential campaign has been reduced to a horse race and the production of eyeball grabbing headlines.
The polling process at its core is flawed and is a bogus industry. With apologies to both of the Nates, your profession is a con. It’s just a game of driving advertising dollars to your hosts. Polling is an effort to find the rage on the page - to capture our attention.
The only polling that will mean ANYTHING will occur on November 5th.
Here is why:
If you click on this link, you will see what the polling suggested all through the election year. On August 15, 2016 Nate Silver of “538” fame had Hillary Clinton at 88.8%
And as late as November 8th, 2016, Nate had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win with 71.3 % of the vote. Nate Silver was considered a polling genius.
I take issue with the polling for a couple of other reasons. First, the technique is suspect. The survey is too small and unrepresentative. Who are they asking and how? Have you ever been surveyed about the presidential election? If so, how? Landline? (who still has one?) Do you answer calls on your cell from strange numbers? Internet questions? (those click bait traps?). There is no accurate way to represent public sentiment as a whole except at the voting booth.
Second, unforeseen events can tip the balance at any moment. Just ask James Comey. And this idea is a bit dark, but still a potential reality. Statistically, based on their age, odds are that either one of the candidates could be dead or disabled by November. Harsh, I know. But if one is still around (like me) at that age, we could consider ourselves in the “bonus years”.
And there is another dark side of all this “guessing” (polling). If your candidate looks like a likely winner based on all the prognostications - and your enthusiasm is low - you might just decide to take the day off and go fishing rather than stand in line to vote. What difference will it make? Well…if you had taken that approach in November 2016, look at the results.
My message is clear: ignore the polls, ignore the pundits. Vote like your freedom depends on it. Because it does. If you are a woman, you know that. If you still have doubts, Google Project 2025 and read how the MAGA folks want to establish a fascist republic. You might like it if you are a white “christian” nationalist/supremacist who denies the human impact on our climate.
Postscript: Harry Truman was a remarkable person and one of our most important presidents. I came to those conclusions by reading David McCullough’s “Truman”. Highly recommend!
Postscript Plus: New puppies for the grandchildren! Australian Cattle dog rescues. Sisters from Tennessee. Provided by the Great Dog Rescue of New England.
The name Maeve is of Irish origin - meaning “intoxicating” or “she who rules”.
Peaches is the name you get when the almost three year old in the family gets to choose the name. So Peaches it is.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/
https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2024/03/27/heritage-foundation-project-2025-2024-election-climate-change-frederick-hewett
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2279
https://www.gdrne.com/
We share the same sentiments, Bill. One message I'd like to see as a counter to this - what I'll refer to as, "poling," is that nobody sits on the sidelines. Anybody who considers themselves to be an American has a duty to defend our democracy from those who would destroy it, and that duty is best and most easily expressed thru voting. I want to see an overwhelming turnout that is undeniable.
Aloha & Mahalo Mr Bill for the reminder..."polls" just serve to raise my blood pressure anyway ...the agita alone is enough to make me step back ;) However, I will keep having the uncomfortable discussions with friends/family who insist "Trump is good for their "finances" and they simply do NOT care about those who are marginalized or the man who says he "can grab a woman by the pussy" because he can! It's a heartbreaking exercise having these conversations but IMHO "silence" is being complicit and I will not be a "good German" because; a proximately 11 million civilians were murdered during the Holocaust. 5,860,000 were Jews (this number is often rounded off as "six million"). 5,000,000 were non-Jewish civilians, including Roma people (Gypsies), Serbs, resistance fighters, anti-Nazi Poles and Germans, homosexuals, Jehovah's Witnesses, and so-called "anti-socials" and "undesirables" such as beggars, vagrants, and mentally retarded people. All of these groups were considered to be enemies of the Third Reich (Hitler's government). Only Jews, however, were singled out for complete annihilation.
The fact is ....we must speak up NOW regardless of what polls say while we still can! He has called people like us "vermin" and has threatened to crush us as his first order of business in the White House. So those friends and family still clinging to their wealth as the most important thing ...in essence aren't even the Good Germans in my book and it breaks my heart.